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Technical Analysis 13-03-2017

March 13, 2017
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Outlook: Slightly Bullish

The euro broke out of another downcycle last week, and is currently trading at more than one-month highs against the dollar. The EUR/USD advanced 0.2% to 1.0692 early Monday, having gained around 150 pips over the last three sessions.

The pair has entered a strong uptrend, as demonstrated by the latest ADX value. Price action is also strengthening, with the 20-day simple moving average crossing above the 100-day SMA at an accelerated pace. However, the euro faces a strong technical hurdle around the 1.0800 level that will be difficult to overcome.



Outlook: Bearish

The British pound lost more than 100 pips to the dollar last week, putting the currency in a precarious state. The GBP/USD is trading just above Thursday’s seven-week lows, but is contained below 1.2200. Prices were last seen hovering at 1.2174, down nearly 400 pips from three weeks ago.

The 4-hour chart formation confirms bearish headwinds for the pair. Both the RSI and stochastic indicator have moved off oversold levels, but continue to show weak underlying momentum.



Outlook: Bearish

Oil prices plumbed new lows on Monday, as prices briefly fell below $48.00 a barrel for the first time since early December. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark for U.S. crude was last down 36 cents, or 0.7%, at $48.13 a barrel.

Crude’s price outlook is extremely bearish following last week’s 10% plunge. Relative strength is approaching oversold levels, with price action on the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages on a sharp downward trajectory.

13 - WTI


Outlook: Bearish

Gold futures edged higher on Monday after briefly falling below $1,200 a troy ounce last week. The April futures contract was last up 0.3% at $1,204.80 a troy ounce, having declined roughly 4.5% from its Feb. 27 swing high. The modest recovery is pushing bullion in the direction of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, although a stronger effort is needed to extend prices beyond that point. This retracement level is likely to provide strong near-term resistance. Based on the latest price movement, Friday’s swing low seems like a reasonable bottom for now.

Meanwhile, the MACD moved back into positive territory on the 1-hour chart, but the underlying trend remains firmly tilted to the downside.

13 - GOLD