Technical Analysis 7/4/2017
By Antonis Vasloos
The euro has been mired in a narrow trading range over the past three sessions, with the underlying trend showing a downward reversal from March’s four-and-a-half month high. The latest movement reflects a broad consolidation back toward the 1.06 region.
The EUR/USD was last seen trading at 1.0645, little changed from the previous close. The momentum charts signal weak underlying momentum for the pair. The outlook remains neutral above 1.06.
After a series of volatile moves, the GBP/USD entered a consolidation pattern over the past week. The return to stability has been met with hesitation, with prices failing to overcome a key threshold at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which also coincides with the 50-day moving average. A sharp break higher is needed to challenge last year’s trend high north of 1.2700.
The outlook remains neutral for now as the bulls attempt to extend the recovery.
Crude oil entered the next leg of its recovery Friday by rising above $52.00 a barrel, a level not seen since the first week of March. The latest uptrend comes after a series of higher highs that invited shorts back into the market.
Broadly speaking, WTI has been in an uptrend since last March’s swing low below $47.00 a barrel. With profits booked, further bullish movement is expected as prices extend beyond the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.
The bulls regained control of gold Friday, with prices surging more than 1% in overnight trade. The breakout comes after a series of lateral moves below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Bullish bias was present all week in the price of gold, but traders hesitated to extend the rally. The latest move could signal renewed upside for the metal.
Prices overnight were up 1.1% at $1,266.50 a troy ounce. The market peaked at $1,271.50. Momentum on the 4-hour chart is trending sharply higher.